There are plenty of truly competitive categories at the 2026 Oscars, but one of the trickiest to gauge so far this season has been Best Supporting Actress. Entering the fall, Ariana Grande was the presumed frontrunner, having been a strong contender just the year before for essentially the same role. But Wicked: For Good ultimately went completely unrecognized, Grande included. Once her campaign started to slip, it seemed like any of the actresses in contention could pull ahead, depending on whether their films built momentum.
Ultimately, though, two performers looked to be jockeying for position at the head of the race: Amy Madigan for Weapons; and Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another. The latter has been strong since her film’s release, given her scene-stealing performance in the first third, but the former has risen from outside-chance nominee to likely victor. Weapons didn’t have the profile of an awards movie, and horror performances are always at risk of being overlooked, but Madigan has run a strong campaign and slowly cemented her position.
Madigan has won the bulk of the critics prizes, as well as the Critics Choice Award, but Taylor won the Golden Globe and gave an endearing speech just before Academy Award nominations voting. Both picked up Oscar noms, but while One Battle After Another chugged along as the current Best Picture frontrunner, Weapons failed to appear anywhere else. Now, a new development suggests things are leaning even more heavily in Taylor’s favor.
Teyana Taylor Is The Best Supporting Actress Frontrunner After The BAFTAs Snub Amy Madigan
On January 27, the British Academy of Film and Television Awards (BAFTA) announced its final nominations, after having released longlists earlier in the month. In Best Supporting Actress, the field narrowed from ten potential contenders down to six nominees, and Madigan, who was among the initial ten, didn’t make the cut. Weapons, likewise, went unrecognized entirely.
This isn’t great news for her Oscar chances. The BAFTAs are hardly one-to-one in terms of what the Academy will do, evidenced by the fact that Madigan was nominated by the latter. However, the British awards show is an important precursor, as there is a good deal of overlap in their voting bodies. Over the last few years, as the Academy made efforts to expand and diversify its membership, the BAFTAs have been a useful way to get a sense for where the international contingent is leaning, as opposed to the American guilds.
One Battle After Another is the most nominated film at the BAFTAs this year, suggesting Taylor’s performance could have the edge with them, while Madigan missing here indicates a lack of support for her and her movie from this group of voters. It doesn’t make the road impossible for Madigan, but it is certainly much tougher. She’ll need to really shore up her position with the Hollywood voters and keep too many votes from splintering off in Taylor’s direction. Given the strength of OBAA, that’s a tall order.
Meanwhile, thanks to this nomination, Taylor becomes the only contender in Supporting Actress to have been nominated by the BAFTAs, Critics Choice Awards, Golden Globes, Actor Awards (formerly SAG Awards), and Oscars. At this point in the race, she’s the clear frontrunner – and her competitors only have a month to change that.
