Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another is being considered a major award contender this year. The 2026 Oscars predictions are the talk of the town as the awards season progresses gradually, and One Battle After Another is expected to win big at the Academy Awards next year, including Best Picture, but the competition is especially tough in that category.
The glowing reviews for One Battle After Another prove that the movie has both commercial and critical appeal. Based on a burning political issue that is currently a major talking point in the States, the film is PTA’s most explicitly political movie. It is also his first movie since 2002’s Punch-Drunk Love to be set in the 21st Century.
The film’s theatrical run has proven fruitful for One Battle After Another, but its VOD release is also close now that the Oscar race is picking up pace. The movie’s mass appeal, alongside its critical acclaim, makes it one of the biggest films of 2025. However, even as the Academy Awards triumph seems guaranteed, one particular win is unlikely.
Leonardo DiCaprio Will Likely Get Nominated For Best Actor in 2026
One Battle After Another continues a character trend for Leonardo DiCaprio, which sees him shifting away from playing pompous, sinister, or charismatic characters with major narrative purpose like he used to. His recent characters have been especially ineffectual, whose absence would likely not affect the outcome of the film.
What stands out about his roles since his Oscar win in 2016 for The Revenant is that the characters are still protagonists, but they happen to lack the charming screen presence of the actor’s most famous roles. However, he still consistently showcases his compelling skills as an actor, often stealing the show, and One Battle After Another is no exception.
DiCaprio plays Bob, an ex-revolutionary whose daughter narrowly escapes the clutches of the vengeful military man who wants to track him and his daughter down. Bob spends the whole movie trying to find her so he can protect and take her home, but he is mostly the comic relief character who represents the jaded mindset of old timers today.
Without DiCaprio’s willingness to commit to the bit, his character would feel annoying to watch, but as is the case with the actor, he instead gives us memorable moments that will undoubtedly become memes. DiCaprio still commands the camera in every scene, even if he is playing a bum. For this reason alone, a Best Actor nomination is almost guaranteed.
DiCaprio Has A Long History Of Being Snubbed By The Academy
Anyone who has followed DiCaprio’s career over the years knows the long-running history of the Academy passing him over for Oscar wins. It has been over three decades since DiCaprio’s first Oscar snub for What’s Eating Gilbert Grape. While it’s rare for actors to get nominated multiple times, let alone win even one, DiCaprio has been nominated six times.
However, he has won only once, and it was on his fifth attempt that DiCaprio finally won the Best Actor Oscar for his performance in The Revenant. Leonardo DiCaprio’s Oscar snubs aren’t just limited to wins, though, as the Academy has failed to nominate some of his best performances in the past, including last year’s Killers of the Flower Moon.
So, while a Best Actor Oscar nomination is almost guaranteed for DiCaprio in 2026, it is still highly possible that he won’t win even if he’s nominated. One Battle After Another features a host of incredible performances by a talented and stellar cast, but alongside Sean Penn, who plays the villain, Leonardo DiCaprio’s is the best performance in the movie.
Sean Penn Is The Favorite To Win The Best Supporting Actor Oscar
While an Oscar nomination for Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another is almost certain, another major nomination is also guaranteed, and even more likely. Sean Penn’s performance as Colonel Lockjaw makes the character despicable and pathetic, which are relevant qualities for the movie’s context. Without his commitment to the role, One Battle After Another wouldn’t have been as compelling.
There are other great possible Best Supporting Actor nominees this year, but Sean Penn’s victory seems guaranteed. However, that further dooms DiCaprio’s chances. The same movie winning the Oscars for Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor is a rare phenomenon that hasn’t happened even ten times in the Academy’s history. So, if Sean Penn wins, DiCaprio almost certainly will not.
One Battle After Another Should Still Be A Big Winner At The Oscars
The past three years have witnessed major sweeps by movies at the Oscars. It was Everything Everywhere All At Once in 2023, Oppenheimer in 2024, and Anora in 2025. So, it is reasonable to assume the same phenomenon could be repeated, despite strong competition, and One Battle After Another could be the candidate that wins the most Oscars in 2026.
While Chase Infiniti’s Best Actress Oscar snub also seems possible, it is still likely that One Battle After Another will be the biggest winner at the Academy Awards, 2026. I am particularly hopeful for the Best Director win, as it would mark Paul Thomas Anderson’s first Oscar win after years of being snubbed despite making incredible movies over the years.
